Global Risk Profile by Tamuz Itai

Venezuela, Iran—and a New Way the U.S. May Be Confronting China

Did the U.S. just signal a new way of confronting China—without confronting China directly?
In early January 2026, two developments stood out as not business as usual: the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in a U.S. military operation, and unusually explicit U.S. warnings to Iran amid nationwide protests and a violent crackdown.
Individually, each event can be explained on its own terms. Taken together, they raise a larger question.
In this episode of Global Risk Profile, we explore a hypothesis: that the United States may be shifting away from endless crisis management—and toward a strategy of sequenced isolation, gradually dismantling the network of proxy crises, aligned regimes, and distraction nodes that have long diluted Western focus while China advanced quietly elsewhere.
This is an attempt to understand the logic that could explain them—and the risks that logic carries.
In this episode:
* Why the Maduro operation and Iran warnings don’t look impulsive
* How real-world strategy works: optionality, timing, and preparation
* The “distraction economy” and how China has benefited from chronic global crises
* What it means to “roll up the board” without direct confrontation * Downstream effects: Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, and interconnected proxy systems
* The risks of forcing clarity instead of managing chaos
* What evidence would confirm—or falsify—this hypothesis in the months ahead
As always, the goal is discernment: seeing structure without inventing certainty.
Chapters: 00:00 Not Business as Usual 03:43 What Strategy Looks Like in the Real World 06:54 The Distraction Economy 08:46 A Shift in How the Board Is Being Read 11:17 Rolling Up the Board (The Hypothesis) 14:45 The Risks of Clearing the Board 17:27 What Would Make This Real About Global Risk Profile: Global Risk Profile examines geopolitics, power, and strategy through history, incentives, and moral clarity—without ideological shortcuts. If you find this analysis useful, consider subscribing and sharing.

Cambodia's Border Camps Aren't Just Scam Centers —There is Evidence They're Organ Harvesting Hubs

What is the dark truth behind the "telephone scam" centers at the Thailand-Cambodia border?
In this episode of Global Risk Profile, biomedical scientist and former US Army microbiologist Dr. Sean Lin reveals a chilling shift in transnational crime.
Beyond the financial fraud, a state-sanctioned organ harvesting "franchise" is reportedly being exported across Southeast Asia and the Belt and Road Initiative.
From illegal procurement logs discovered on a surgeon’s computer to the FBI’s recent sanctions against the Prince Holding Group, we dive deep into the evidence of an industry that treats human bodies as disposable "materials."
In this podcast, you will learn:
* The connection between Cambodia’s "scam camps" and high-level Chinese hospitals.
* How the "franchise" model is spreading to countries like Nigeria and the Middle East.
* The digital evidence showing organs are being harvested from living victims "to order."
* What the US Senate can do now via the Falun Gong Protection Act.
🔗 RESOURCES MENTIONED:
The Falun Gong Protection Act (H.R. 4132): https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/817/text
Consilium Institute: https://consiliuminstitute.org IPAC Model
Legislation on Organ Harvesting: https://www.ipac.global/news/international-lawmakers-unite-at-ipac-summit-unveiling-coordinated-action-to-safeguard-human-rights-and-regional-security
ABOUT THE GUEST: Dr. Sean Lin is an Associate Professor of Biomedical Science and a former US Army microbiologist. With over 20 years of experience tracking human rights atrocities and biomedical ethics violations in China, he currently serves as the Executive Director of the Consilium Institute in New York.
SUPPORT THE CHANNEL: 🔔 Subscribe for more deep-dives into global risks and geopolitical security.
💬 Comment below: Did you know about the connection between scam centers and medical centers?
📢 Share this video to raise awareness.
Chapters: 00:00 Introduction of Scam Camps in Cambodia 02:01 Actually There's Evidence of Organ Harvesting 05:38 Connection to Chinese Hospitals 07:29  Luo Shuaiyu, doctor thrown of a building, family reveals evidence 10:25 "Meat Market" mentality among doctors 11:57 CCP Influence in Cambodia 12:51 China Organ Harvesting first revealed in 2006 14:31 Sean Lin resume 16:37 2025 Guangzhou Organ Donation Conference - declaring it big business 17:22 Putin and Xi hot mic moment from the summer 18:38 The Erosion of Ethics of Medical Doctors in China 19:31 History of organ harvesting in China 20:51 Exporting the model worldwide 21:31 Complicit International organizations 23:20 Deceiving Patients' families 24:14 Abuse of Regenerative Medicine in China 27:42 Evidence of Cambodia Organ Harvesting 30:11 Evidence of Organ Harvesting in Nigeria 31:37 China Exporting Organ Harvesting Business 34:16 Students Disappearing in China, suspected kidnap for organ harvesting 35:31 Consilium Think Tank, Sean Lin Executive Director 38:17 Pending Legislation in US Congress 41:24 This Should be a Bipartisan Issue
#GlobalRisk #OrganHarvesting #HumanRights #Cambodia #Geopolitics #DrSeanLin #FalunGongProtectionAct #TrueCrimeInvestigation

The Hidden Logic Behind the Housing Crisis

Why have housing prices risen across so much of the Western world — even in countries with low population growth, different political systems, and decades of technological progress that made most other goods cheaper?
In this episode of Global Risk Profile, we start with a provocative essay arguing that the housing market isn’t “broken,” but shaped by incentives. That claim turns out to be partially right — and far more revealing than it first appears.
From there, we widen the lens. We explore how housing quietly shifted from shelter to financial asset, how monetary policy and debt changed the role of savings, why demographics failed to bring relief, and how rising home prices can enrich individuals on paper while weakening families across generations.
Along the way, we look at:
* Why housing doesn’t behave like other goods in a tech-driven economy
* How asset inflation absorbed many of the gains from cheaper consumer products
* Why low savings and high leverage force people into speculation
* The growing role of institutional investors — and what that really signals
* Why some households experience the system as fragile while others see opportunity
Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 02:30 Shelter Becomes Asset 04:48 Monetary Gravity 07:14 Savings Collapse and Forced Leverage 08:57 Why Demography Didn't Fix It 10:47 The Family Balance Sheet Illusion 12:33 Two Operating Regimes 16:03 Riding the Tiger 18:00 Discernment

The Shocking Truth About MAID in Canada!

Canada’s Medical Assistance in Dying (MAID) program began as a narrow, compassionate response to terminal illness. Today, it has become one of the most permissive assisted-dying regimes in the world.
In this episode of Global Risk Profile, we trace how MAID evolved—from a tightly controlled end-of-life exception into a system shaped by legal logic, institutional incentives, healthcare scarcity, and bureaucratic drift.
We examine real cases, court decisions, and policy changes that expanded eligibility beyond terminal illness, and ask a harder question: what happens when assisted dying becomes easier to access than housing, treatment, or long-term care?
We explore:
* How MAID started, and why lawmakers believed it would remain rare
* Why legal and institutional incentives pushed the program far beyond its original scope
* Documented cases where MAID was suggested to vulnerable individuals
* A global comparison: how the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Israel, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Switzerland, and the Netherlands draw very different lines
* The concept of “soft eugenics”: not ideology or conspiracy, but systems quietly steering certain lives toward exit because support is hard and expensive
* Why civilizations across history have treated suicide with extreme caution—and where modern policy may be losing its moral guardrails
This episode is not about accusing individuals of bad intentions. It’s about understanding how good intentions collide with real-world incentives—and why outcomes, not motives, ultimately matter.
Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 02:14 The Narrow Promise That Couldn't Stay Narrow 04:19 What Expansion Looks Like 06:08 When Systems Stop Fighting for Certain Lives 09:22 The Moral Landscape

Sovereignty Has a Cost | The New Global Reality

This episode examines the origins of the post-1945 international order, born from the trauma of two world wars and the imperative to avoid uncontrolled escalation.
It explores how the architects of this system adopted a pragmatic approach to establish a new liberal order.
We discuss the role of diplomacy and foreign policy in shaping global stability, particularly from the perspective of the United States, after World War Two.
For decades, that system worked. Not perfectly — but well enough to reduce great-power war and stabilize a shattered world.
But it also rested on a quiet assumption: that power, fear, and survival — the forces that had governed human affairs for millennia — could be permanently subordinated to rules, norms, and institutions.
That assumption is now breaking, and the new National Security Strategy seems like a clear indicator of this.
In this episode, we explore:
* Why the post-1945 international order succeeded — and where it overreached
* The forgotten historical rule that legitimacy depends on governance, not declarations
* Why conflicts like Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel expose limits in international law
* How demands for greater allied self-defense mark a return to responsibility
* What the new U.S. National Security Strategy reveals about a thinner, more honest order
* And why history’s oldest pattern — hubris followed by nemesis — is reasserting itself
This is not an argument for abandoning international law. It’s an argument for understanding its limits. Law can restrain power — but it cannot replace it. Sovereignty has a cost. Peace must be maintained, not assumed. And history can be managed — but never erased.
What comes next will be more demanding than the world we grew used to.
Global Risk Profile explores geopolitics through history, incentives, and first principles — not ideology. Facts first. Patterns second. Judgment last.
 
Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 03:02 What the System Replaced 07:58 Where the Post-1945 Order Overreached 11:38 When Law Meets Existential Reality 14:54 When Consistency Keeps Failing 16:37 Strategy Catches Up to Reality  - The National Security Strategy 19:37 The Return of Responsibility 21:47 Hubris and Nemesis: The Old Pattern Returns 23:57 Recalibrating First Principles

It's Complicated: US & EU Foods

Why does the European Union reject many U.S. food products — and why does the United States accuse Europe of hiding behind “fake” safety rules?
Donald Trump claims the EU makes it economically impossible for American food and agricultural products to enter its market. European and Canadian officials respond that U.S. foods rely on chemicals, hormones, and treatments their systems do not allow. But beneath the public argument over safety standards lies a deeper structural divide.
This episode explores how Europe and the United States protect fundamentally different agricultural systems. Europe uses food policy to preserve small and midsize farms, rural society, and demographic stability. The U.S., by contrast, has built an industrial food system optimized for scale, uniformity, and global exports — often at the expense of small farmers.
We examine why American small farmers face systemic barriers when trying to produce healthier, lower-input, soil-first food; how supply chains, retail standards, and compliance costs favor consolidation; and how the recent U.S.–EU trade deal reinforces these dynamics rather than bridging them.
Finally, we confront a deeper dilemma: as traditional farming methods become premium products with premium pricing, can the world still be fed in the “old way” — or has the food system been structurally locked into industrial throughput at the cost of long-term health and resilience?
This is not a debate about nostalgia or ideology. It’s an examination of how economic architecture shapes what ends up on our plates — and what that means for farmers, consumers, and the future of food.
Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 01:16 Protecting Farmers 05:39 Conclusion

Why Are States Changing Voting Maps Now?

Who gets counted in America—citizens, voters, or simply everyone who lives here?
And how does that decision shape political power?
In this episode of Global Risk Profile, we look beneath today’s debates on immigration, birthright citizenship, and redistricting to uncover the structural forces driving them. The story is not about conspiracy or partisan purity. It’s about a constitutional system that allocates representation by counting persons, and a political landscape where both parties operate within the incentives that design creates.
We start with recent events in Texas, Indiana, and New York—states redrawing congressional maps mid-decade—before tracing the long history of gerrymandering in both the U.S. and the U.K. We then examine the Constitution and the 14th Amendment, the Supreme Court decisions that reshaped modern redistricting (Rucho, Purcell, and the Texas stay), and how each party has used the tools available to it over different decades.
Finally, we explore how three decades of rising unauthorized immigration, settlement patterns, and birthright citizenship interact with representation. These policies involve legal, moral, and practical questions—but they also have structural political consequences.
That dual reality is why the debates have become so sharp: each side can genuinely claim principled motives while also recognizing that the outcomes affect long-term political power.
This episode is not about choosing sides. It is about seeing the two layers at once—the philosophical and the structural—so we can understand the system clearly and make informed judgments.
Chapters 00:00 — The Map Never Sleeps 02:28 — Redistricting’s Real History (U.S. & U.K.) 06:18 — What the Constitution Says (and Doesn’t) 07:24 — The Supreme Court Changes the Rules 09:25 — How Each Party Used These Tools 12:29 — Immigration, Presence, and Representation 14:27 — Birthright Citizenship and Settlement Incentives 16:02 — Two Layers of Every Modern Debate

Drones in War Are Getting CRAZY Fast - What You Need to Know (Part 2)

Machine-speed warfare has arrived — and most military and political systems are still built for human-speed interpretation.
In this episode, we explore how drone saturation, cheap precision strike, AI-assisted targeting, and electronic warfare are creating the conditions for escalation not through intent, but through misinterpretation.
From Gaza and southern Lebanon to Ukraine and the U.S.–Mexico border, small, expendable drones now shape the tempo of conflict.
They drift, jam, spoof, maneuver and react faster than commanders can fully interpret — and that gap is becoming the defining risk of our century.
A recent analysis of the Ukraine war describes drones as cost-imposing systems evolving faster than traditional military structures can adapt. Erik Prince, in a March 2025 security lecture, warned that inexpensive FPV platforms and AI autopilots have democratized precision strike far beyond what state doctrine ever anticipated.
This episode asks the central question of the drone age: What happens when autonomous or semi-autonomous systems respond to noise, spoofing, or jamming faster than humans can de-escalate?
The future of conflict will not be determined only by who has the fastest systems, but by who can encode restraint into them.
Power is cheap now. Speed is cheap. Intelligence is cheap. Wisdom is scarce.
This is part 2 of a 2-part series.
Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 01:15 The Tom Clancy Analogy - "Sum of All Fears" 04:48 Robust vs Loose Systems 09:28 What Nations Need to Do 09:35 Medium Powers 10:39 Israel 12:22 Taiwan 14:02 United States 16:15 Discernment at Machine Speed

How Drones Are Changing War in 2025 (Part 1)

Machine-speed warfare has arrived — and most military and political systems are still built for human-speed interpretation.
In this episode, we explore how drone saturation, cheap precision strike, AI-assisted targeting, and electronic warfare are creating the conditions for escalation not through intent, but through misinterpretation.
From Gaza and southern Lebanon to Ukraine and the U.S.–Mexico border, small, expendable drones now shape the tempo of conflict. They drift, jam, spoof, maneuver and react faster than commanders can fully interpret — and that gap is becoming the defining risk of our century.
A recent analysis of the Ukraine war describes drones as cost-imposing systems evolving faster than traditional military structures can adapt. Erik Prince, in a March 2025 security lecture, warned that inexpensive FPV platforms and AI autopilots have democratized precision strike far beyond what state doctrine ever anticipated.
This episode asks the central question of the drone age: What happens when autonomous or semi-autonomous systems respond to noise, spoofing, or jamming faster than humans can de-escalate?
The future of conflict will not be determined only by who has the fastest systems, but by who can encode restraint into them.
Power is cheap now. Speed is cheap. Intelligence is cheap. Wisdom is scarce.
This is part 1 of a 2-part series.
Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 02:13 Gaza and Lebanon - Instability in Seconds 04:02 Ukraine - A Battlefield that Moves Faster than Humans 06:36 Borders - Smugglers as Accidental Pioneers 08:33 Why Autonomy Becomes Unavoidable 13:23 When Machines Move Faster than Minds 15:53 Control Theory

Why China Is NOT Singapore: The Myth of ‘Singapore at Scale’

For decades, Western business elites argued that China’s economic miracle was not mysterious. They believed Beijing followed the Singapore model under Lee Kuan Yew: disciplined leadership, high savings, competent technocrats, and long-term planning.
But as China enters its first true stress test in 40 years—falling foreign investment, real-estate unraveling, exploding debt, demographic decline, and global de-risking—the differences between China and Singapore have become impossible to ignore.
In this Global Risk Profile episode, we examine:
• What China truly learned from Singapore
• Why Singapore’s success rests on rule-of-law, not rule-of-Party
• How Chinese households save out of fear—not confidence
• Why foreign capital and global markets were far more important to China’s rise than the narrative admits
• How today’s pressures expose a fragile, insecure system
• Why the “inevitable China” story no longer fits the data
This is a different system entering a very different phase—and the world needs to understand the distinction.
Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 01:25 The Narrative People Tell Themselves 03:45 What Was Right.. and What Was Wrong From the Start 08:55 The Stress Test: The 2020s Reveal the Difference 11:57 Strategic Implications for China and the World 13:47 What Western Elites Saw and What They Missed 15:30 One More Thing...