Global Risk Profile by Tamuz Itai

Sovereignity vs. Globalism: The Battle Reshaping Nations

We are currently witnessing the dismantling of an experiment of globalization "with Chinese characteristics," And more broadly, why the post-war rules-based order is being torn down and what is taking its place.
Whether you view the actions of the Trump administration as a geopolitical correction or a "wrecking ball," the ground is being cleared for a world of sovereign nation-states.
We dive into the structural failures of the old system—mercantilism without liberalization, supply-chain fragility, and the loss of national sovereignty—to explain why 2026 is the point of no return.
Using Thomas Kuhn’s The Structure of Scientific Revolutions to explain why this "Paradigm Shift" feels so chaotic.
Join the Conversation: Is a world of sovereign states safer, or are we headed for a more dangerous era of friction?
Let us know your thoughts in the comments.
#Geopolitics #2026 #WorldOrder #Trump #Globalization #Sovereignty #ParadigmShift
This video provides a deep-dive analysis into the structural shifts of the 2026 global order, explaining the transition from globalism to a nation-state centric world.
 
Content:
00:00 Introduction
01:00 The “Golden Age”
01:52 De-Coupling and De-Risking
02:59 Institutional Exit
04:02 Why Trump?
04:39 The Ripple Effect
05:36 Fork in the Road
07:12 Paradigm Shift
08:27 Moral Agency
09:14 Conclusion

Iran's Billion-Dollar Crypto Scheme - And China Money Laundering Networks

How do you fund a drone program while your economy is collapsing? You use the blockchain.
In 2026, cryptocurrency has become the ultimate double-edged sword. For ordinary Iranians, it’s a vital lifeline against 50% inflation.
But for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), it’s a $3 billion shadow arsenal used to procure missile parts and fund regional proxies.
We’re pulling back the curtain on the "Amazon for criminals"—the Chinese money laundering networks (CMLNs) that make state-sponsored sanctions evasion possible in the digital age.
As the U.S. establishes a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve at home, can it successfully shut down the blockchain for its enemies abroad?
Content:
00:00 Introduction
01:00 Why Ordinary Iranians Need Crypto
02:03 The Hijack: Enter the IRGC
03:14 The Procurement Pipeline
04:34 The Enables: Chinese Money Laundering Networks (CMLNs)
05:37 The Crackdown
06:32 Conclusion: Battle for the Ledger

Gaza, Lebanon, Iran: The Strategic Dilemma Nobody Wants to Face

In this video, we explore the "Zhuge Liang Choice"—a grim strategic dilemma named after a 14th-century Chinese legend that is currently playing out across the Middle East.
From the rubble of Gaza to the displacement in southern Lebanon and the high-stakes ultimatum delivered to Iran in March 2026, we examine what happens when leaders are forced to choose between enduring endless "low-level bleeding" or crossing a moral threshold to end a cycle of violence forever.
What We’re Covering:
00:00 Introduction
01:00 Why a strategist from 1,300 years ago wept after winning.
02:31 Gaza (2023–2025): The devastating cost of Hamas's "resistance"
04:04 Lebanon: How Hezbollah’s escalation displaced 20% of the country
05:44 Trump’s Ultimatum if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
07:17 Is there ever a "moral" way to break a cycle of total war?
Let’s discuss it in the comments.

The Wealth Gap Nobody is Talking About

Are you noticing that everyday life feels increasingly polarized? Fast food or tasting menus. Budget flights with fees or luxurious business class. Reliable mid-range hotels struggling while luxury properties thrive. A new car averaging nearly $50,000 — pushing many families toward used cars or heavy debt.
This isn’t random. It’s the “barbell economy” — where value concentrates at the extremes (ultra-cheap utility or premium experience) and the broad, reasonable middle is quietly vanishing.
In this video, we explore the pattern across restaurants, travel, cars, media, education, jobs, and retail. Backed by real data — including luxury hotels driving most revenue growth while midscale and economy segments lag, and the long-term decline of stable mid-skill jobs.
We break down why this is happening, why the middle class matters for social stability, and the paths forward.
Timestamps: 00:00 – Introduction 00:30 – The Pattern Everyone Feels 03:58 – Why the Middle Is Getting Squeezed 05:43 – Why the Middle Class Still Matters 06:53 – The Fork in the Road 08:36 – Lessons from History & Today
If you enjoyed this analysis, like, subscribe, and hit the bell for more thoughtful commentary on economics, society, geopolitics, and the future.
#BarbellEconomy #MiddleClass #EconomicTrends #FutureOfWork #Society

Will President Trump Bomb Iran's Power Plants?

In this episode, we discuss the latest iran news concerning President Trump's recent threats to the Iranian regime. Many analysts and officials are debating whether Donald Trump will follow through on his warnings regarding the Strait of Hormuz. We explore the implications of these developments on us iran relations and the broader middle east political landscape, touching on national security concerns.

Iran War Update: Tactical Triumphs, Internal Revolt Bets, Hormuz Crisis – March 2026 Deep Dive

An exclusive interview with Global Risk Profile's host, Tamuz Itai, in "The Perspectives with Cathy Zhang" channel. Itai breaks down the US-Israel war on Iran three weeks in: massive tactical successes against Iran's navy, missiles, and leadership; the regime's "degraded but functioning" status; why sparse daily missile launches still force Israelis into shelters 5–15 times a day; and the high-stakes bet on internal rebellion amid Nowruz celebrations.
 
Key highlights:
* Netanyahu's "We're watching from above" message during Persian New Year – is it signaling air support for uprisings?
* Mossad's direct threats to IRGC officers and strikes on Basij checkpoints to loosen regime control.
* The South Pars gas field hit and its timing to pressure civilians.
* Trump's explosive 48-hour ultimatum (issued March 21): reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face obliteration of Iran's power plants – with Tehran vowing total closure and retaliation.
Tamuz Itai explains the mixed goals (denuclearization vs. regime change ambiguity), why tactical wins haven't yet ended the war, the grand strategy against China's proxies, and lessons from Gaza on end-state planning.
As the Hormuz deadline looms (late March 23), this is a must-listen for understanding the war's battlefield realities, internal dynamics, and global stakes.
Timestamps:
00:00 – Tactical Progress & Regime Degradation
04:20 – Is the War Coming to a Close?
05:37 – Cluster Munitions & Civilian Impact
06:06 – Netanyahu's Nowruz Message & Rebellion Signals
08:55 – Potential Ethnic Minorities and Military Rebellion 10:56 – South Pars Strike
12:26 – Mossad Calling Iranian Officers
13:32 – Israel Delegating Decapitation Decisions to Military Officers
15:40 – Tight Integration b/w Air Force and Intelligence
16:48 – Source of Israeli Military Might
18:48 – Hormuz Closure, Allies' U-Turn
21:55 – Trump-Xi Meeting Delayed
24:49 – What Could President Trump's Grand Strategy Be?
26:19 – Iran and Venezuela Timing and Operational Considerations
28:35 – Why Launch a War with Mid Terms Coming?
31:08 – The Importance of Resilience and Desired End-State
33:37 – American vs. Israel Goals Subscribe for more global risk analysis.
Like, comment your thoughts on the ultimatum, and share if this breakdown helped clarify the fog of war!
Follow Tamuz on X: @TamuzItai
#iranwar2026 #StraitOfHormuz #TrumpUltimatum #IsraelIran #MiddleEast2026

Hormuz Shutdown: Old Pipeline Could Save the World from Oil Chaos

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed in March 2026—tanker traffic has collapsed over 90%, prices are spiking, and Gulf oil is trapped. Bypass pipelines like Saudi's East-West and UAE's Fujairah are maxed out, but they cover only a fraction of flows.
History offers a solution: the 1930s Kirkuk-to-Mediterranean pipeline corridor, once shut by politics, could be revived via the Levant land bridge—now potentially enabled by Abraham Accords and the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC).
Could this end Iran's chokehold forever? Dive into the geopolitics, history, and what comes next for energy security.
#StraitOfHormuz #OilCrisis2026 #IMEC #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity
Subscribe for more deep dives on global risks.
Content: 00:00 Introduction 02:32 Alternatives 04:45 History 06:34 What Went Wrong 08:26 What Could Go Right 10:45 Future Path

Trump's Pragmatic Deals vs Ideological Resistance

Trump's Foreign Policy: Wins with Pragmatists, Walls with Ideologues In this episode of Global Risk Profile, we examine Donald Trump's foreign policy record as we approach the midpoint of his second term in early 2026.
Trump’s signature style—hard bargaining, personal rapport, and leverage—delivers bold transactional successes when dealing with pragmatic, interest-driven leaders.
Yet it faced deadlocks or escalations when facing regimes guided by deep ideological commitments: revolutionary doctrine, historical revanchism, or existential party red lines that override rational national interest.
Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro & Episode Overview 00:47 – The Core Pattern: Pragmatists vs. Ideologues 01:25 – Successes 02:11 – The Ideological Wall: Iran, Russia-Ukraine, China 05:32 – The “Agree–Walk Back” Cycle 06:21 – Reflection: Hybrid Approaches & the Learning Curve 06:32 – Closing Thoughts & Call to Action
If this analysis resonated, drop a comment: Which case do you think is the biggest test ahead—Iran, Ukraine, or China?
Like, subscribe, and hit the bell 🔔 for more deep dives into global strategy and great-power competition.
Follow on X: @TamuzItai New episodes drop weekly. #TrumpForeignPolicy #AbrahamAccords #RussiaUkraine #IranWar #ChinaUS #Geopolitics #GreatPowerCompetition #ForeignPolicy2026 #ArtOfTheDeal

Israel says it killed Hezbollah intelligence chief - what happens next?

Join us for the latest Israel news as we discuss IDF's claim of eliminating Hezbollah's intelligence chief in Beirut. Geopolitical columnist Tammuz Itai provides expert insights into Iran's proxies and their reach across the Middle East. This discussion sheds light on the ongoing Lebanon news and regional tensions, as well as potential end-states for the current war.

Feb 28th Interview from the Bomb Shelter: Iran War 2.0 and Regime Change